BS DETECTOR: The Great AI Policy Theater of May 2025 + Why Microsoft's "Partner" Status Is Now a Lie

AI VENDOR BS DETECTOR + POLICY DECODER

Today is the comment deadline for a major federal AI regulation (you probably didn't know that), Microsoft just quietly announced they're developing models to directly compete with OpenAI (their "partner"), and Google is about to flood the market with AI announcements next week.

Let me decode what's actually happening behind the vendor BS and policy theater.

Breaking Down Today's Policy Deadline (That No One Is Talking About)

What They're Saying: "Public consultation period for AI regulation framework ends May 15"

What It Actually Means: The government is collecting comments it will largely ignore while creating regulations that benefit incumbent tech giants.

Today is the actual deadline for comments on the Federal Register's "Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion." This isn't some minor policy—it sets export controls and defines how AI models can be distributed globally.

The Real Policy Game Being Played

Three major AI policy "consultations" are happening simultaneously:

1. Trump's AI Action Plan - Framed as "removing barriers" but actually creates new barriers favorable to US tech giants

2. DOE AI Infrastructure RFI - Government offering land for AI data centers (closed May 7, but the real decisions are already made)

3. Export Control Framework - Today's deadline that will determine which countries get access to advanced AI tech

The BS Detector Reality: These "public consultations" are theater. The real negotiations happen in private meetings between government officials and tech company lobbyists.

Microsoft's OpenAI Partnership Is Now Pure Fiction

While everyone focuses on drama, here's the smoking gun buried in recent announcements:

The Smoking Gun: Microsoft just announced support for Google's Agent2Agent protocol in Azure AI Foundry and Copilot Studio.

Translation: Microsoft is building infrastructure specifically designed to work with non-OpenAI models.

The Timeline of Partnership Destruction

March 2025: Reuters reports Microsoft is developing "MAI" models to compete directly with OpenAI

April 2025: Microsoft starts testing xAI, Meta, and DeepSeek models as "OpenAI replacements"

May 7, 2025: Microsoft announces full support for Google's A2A protocol

May 15, 2025: Microsoft and OpenAI are in "tough negotiations" about equity and the future

BS Detector Analysis: Microsoft is executing a controlled retreat from OpenAI dependence while maintaining the partnership facade for market stability.

What Microsoft Is Actually Building

Based on official announcements and leaks:

1. MAI Models: Internal models that "perform nearly as well as leading models from OpenAI and Anthropic"

2. Multi-Model Infrastructure: Testing xAI, Meta, DeepSeek as drop-in OpenAI replacements

3. Open Protocols: Full support for MCP (Anthropic's standard) and A2A (Google's standard)

4. Reasoning Models: Direct competition to OpenAI's o1 family

Reality Check: Microsoft is building a post-OpenAI AI strategy while keeping the partnership alive until they're ready to flip the switch.

Google's Upcoming AI Theater (I/O 2025 Next Week)

May 20-21: Google I/O 2025 will be an AI announcement marathon

What Google Will Claim: "Revolutionary AI updates across all products"

What Will Actually Happen: Incremental improvements presented as breakthroughs

Pre-Decoding Google's Announcements

Based on leaks and patterns:

• Gemini Pro Updates: Modest performance improvements framed as "game-changing"

• Project Astra Demo: The same smart glasses demo from last year with minor updates

• AI Integration Everywhere: Existing products getting AI features that don't fundamentally change functionality

• Enterprise AI Focus: More Azure/AWS competitive positioning

BS Detector Prediction: 90% of announcements will be repackaging existing capabilities with new names.

The Agent2Agent Protocol: Google's Stealth Power Move

While everyone watches the Microsoft-OpenAI drama, Google quietly released A2A (Agent2Agent) protocol in April. Microsoft just adopted it.

What Vendors Say: "Open standard for AI agent collaboration"

What It Actually Does: Creates a Google-controlled protocol for the future of AI systems

Why A2A Matters More Than the Headlines

1. Vendor Lock-In 2.0: Creates new dependencies on Google's infrastructure and standards

2. Enterprise Fragmentation: Different agent protocols mean enterprises will be forced to pick ecosystems

3. Strategic Moat: Google is positioning itself as the "neutral" platform while Microsoft and OpenAI fight

Reality: Google is playing the long game while others are fighting daily battles.

Policy Decoder: What These Regulations Actually Do

Export Control Framework (Deadline Today)

Marketing Speak: "Framework for AI Diffusion promotes innovation while protecting national security"

Translation:

• US tech companies get privileged access to global markets

• China and "strategic competitors" get restricted access

• Everyone else gets whatever scraps remain

Key Reveals From the Framework

1. Country Allocations: Maximum 790 million TPP (Total Processing Performance) allocated from 2025-2027

2. Verification Requirements: New "Verified End User" programs that favor large US companies

3. Compliance Theater: Extensive documentation requirements that smaller companies can't afford

Bottom Line: This isn't about security—it's about market control.

The Real AI Vendor Dynamics

Forget the partnership narratives. Here's what's actually happening:

The New Alignment (May 2025)

Google: Building ecosystem standards (A2A, Gemini integration) Microsoft: Diversifying away from OpenAI while maintaining facade OpenAI: Desperate to maintain relevance while losing their biggest patron Anthropic: Taking advantage of Microsoft-OpenAI tensions Meta: Quietly building open source alternatives to everyone

The Enterprise Reality

Companies are being forced to choose between:

1. Google's Ecosystem: Integrated but Google-controlled

2. Microsoft's Multi-Model: Flexible but complex

3. Direct OpenAI: Powerful but politically unstable

4. Anthropic: Safe but limited scale

5. Open Source: Free but unsupported

No Good Options: Every choice involves significant vendor lock-in or political risk.

How to Navigate the BS

For Enterprise Decision-Makers

1. Ignore Partnership Announcements: They're marketing, not technical reality

2. Focus on Protocol Standards: MCP and A2A matter more than model quality

3. Plan for Vendor Wars: Microsoft-OpenAI split is inevitable, plan accordingly

4. Document Everything: Compliance requirements will multiply, start tracking now

Questions to Ask Vendors

1. "Which protocols does your platform actually support?" (MCP, A2A, others)

2. "What happens if your partnership with [X] ends?"

3. "Can I export data in standard formats without vendor lock-in?"

4. "How do you handle compliance with the new export control framework?"

Red Flags in Vendor Pitches

• Claims about "revolutionary breakthroughs" (incremental improvements)

• Partnership announcements as proof of stability (often the opposite)

• "Open" standards that only work with their ecosystem

• Compliance promises without specific implementation details

What Happens Next Week

May 20-21: Google I/O will flood the market with AI announcements Expected Reality:

• 5-10 genuinely useful updates buried in 50+ incremental features

• Lots of demo magic that doesn't work in production

• Enterprise features that sound impressive but have limited real-world impact

How to Filter the Noise:

1. Ignore anything that's "coming soon"

2. Focus on features available immediately

3. Look for independent technical reviews, not vendor demos

4. Check if the features require new vendor dependencies

Thursday's Truth

While everyone debates if AI will work, BSKiller subscribers already know which implementations will fail, which vendors are lying, and which skills actually matter.

The AI vendor landscape is fragmenting rapidly. Companies selling "partnership" and "ecosystem" stories are often the ones preparing for war. The real winners will be those who build with vendor independence from day one.

Policy "consultations" are theater. Export controls are trade weapons. Partnership announcements are PR moves. Focus on what vendors actually build and ship, not what they promise or claim to believe.

Next Thursday: I'll break down the post-Google I/O reality check and reveal which vendor claims from the event are actually achievable versus pure demo magic.

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Sources for today's analysis:

• Federal Register Framework for AI Diffusion (deadline today)

• Microsoft Azure AI updates and A2A adoption announcement

• Reuters reporting on Microsoft's internal AI model development

• Google's upcoming I/O schedule and historical pattern analysis

The BS never stops, but neither do we.