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What the pen marks mean
rememberThe takeaway: what to remember
figureThe number that matters
evidenceThe evidence line
rulingThe ruling
claimThe claim that fails
Each mark is drawn once, as you reach it. Numbers are only circled when they come from the story’s own figures.
ResearchTrue, butLab Not FieldFree sample
Benchmark-only doubling
The doubling is real on one ruler: Anthropic's internal benchmark index. METR says that ruler covers well-specified tasks, and Anthropic redacted most of the rest.
Ajeya Cotra on Planned Obsolescence, reading METR's assessment and Anthropic's S-1 statement that it may imminently meet its own threshold ·
AI illustration
METR's independent review does estimate about 2x, and rules out a compute surge as the cause.
The reality check
the public number is a benchmark index on well-specified tasks, the checks span 1.1x to 2.9x, and Anthropic redacted most of the evidence METR found most informative.
Why care? Treat "AI doubled AI progress" as a credible estimate from one independent reviewer, measured on benchmarks, with wide error bars. You cannot check most of it yourself; METR says the public has to rely on its judgment.
Take this with youMETR does find Anthropic's progress roughly doubled, but only on a benchmark index of well-specified tasks. Its checks range from 1.1x to 2.9x and most evidence is redacted.
Open the evidence2 source pages +
The claim we checked
AI is dramatically accelerating AI research at Anthropic right now, roughly doubling the pace of capabilities progress.
These are quoted receipts, not a count of independent investigations. Several reports may rely on the same original source.
The $2.5 trillion Nasdaq loss on 5 November is real. Blaming it all on the blue wave crops out a month of AI selling that came first.
The Guardian business live blog, with President Donald Trump blaming the 'Dumocrats' ·
AI illustration
the Nasdaq did fall 5.5% on 5 November, and the Guardian puts the market value lost at $2.5 trillion.
The reality check
the Nasdaq 100 had already fallen 6.6% in October on AI earnings and financing worries.
Why care? If you quote this, say the vote triggered Thursday's fall, not the slide. Anyone reading a one-week chart is missing the October losses that set it up.
Take this with youThe Nasdaq did lose $2.5 trillion in market value on 5 November, but the Nasdaq 100 had already fallen 6.6% in October over AI earnings and financing.
Open the evidence3 source pages +
The claim we checked
Investors wiped $2.5 trillion off the Nasdaq in a single day because the Democrats' midterm blue wave sparked fears for the AI boom.
These are quoted receipts, not a count of independent investigations. Several reports may rely on the same original source.
Microsoft let its Oracle GPU rental lapse. Oracle answered with a 20% renewal premium from a different batch of capacity, and nobody has said who takes Microsoft's share.
Oracle spokesperson, responding to a Bloomberg News report carried by Reuters ·
AI illustration
Bloomberg, via Reuters, says Microsoft declined to renew and has been switching capacity off.
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Microsoft is winding down an arrangement to rent AI computing from Oracle as part of a larger reassessment of billions of dollars in cloud partnerships
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