Start free trial

Five minutes.
AI, made clearer.

What changed, what holds up, and why it matters. A short edition you can actually finish.

Read the briefing

Start with two full samples. Sign in for this edition’s free story. Sources and corrections stay open.

What the pen marks mean
  • rememberThe takeaway: what to remember
  • figureThe number that matters
  • evidenceThe evidence line
  • rulingThe ruling
  • claimThe claim that fails

Each mark is drawn once, as you reach it. Numbers are only circled when they come from the story’s own figures.

GitHub's famous number says Copilot users finished a task 55% faster. A Harvard paper tracking 718 firms finds AI agents raised lines of code 30%, while finished work showed no statistically significant change.

A developer at a desk beside a tall pile of paper pages, with a narrow doorway behind where a single reviewer sits.
AI illustration

GitHub's 2022 post says developers using Copilot finished a task 55% faster.

The reality check

That task was writing one HTTP server in JavaScript. A Harvard working paper using 300 million work events across 718 firms finds AI agents brought a 30 percent increase in lines of code, but the resolution rate for issues and epics did not change in a statistically significant way. Review time balloons 49 percent.

Why care? When a vendor quotes a speed-up, ask what was timed. One timed task does not measure software shipped.

Take this with youGitHub's 55% speed-up timed one coding task. Across 718 firms, AI agents added 30% more code but no statistically significant rise in finished work.

Open the evidence4 source pages

The claim we checked

Developers who used GitHub Copilot completed the task 55% faster than the developers who didn't use GitHub Copilot.

These are quoted receipts, not a count of independent investigations. Several reports may rely on the same original source.

github.blog ↗
55% faster than the developers who didn’t use GitHub Copilot
github.blog ↗
timed how long it took them to write an HTTP server in JavaScript
arxiv.org ↗
completed the task 55.8% faster than the control group
fion.ac ↗
a novel proprietary dataset from an engineering analytics platform, covering 300 million work events
fion.ac ↗
across 718 firms. We use a staggered difference-in-differences design
fion.ac ↗
However, productivity gains do not fully pass through to changes in software output or employment.
fion.ac ↗
For AI agents, this incomplete pass-through reflects a bottleneck from code review
arstechnica.com ↗
Harvard University researchers Fiona Chen and James Stratton made use of aggregated analytics data from
arstechnica.com ↗
leads to a 30 percent increase in total lines of code generated
arstechnica.com ↗
did not change in a statistically significant way after AI tools were introduced
arstechnica.com ↗
the resolution rate for Issues and Epics (i.e. wholesale software features) tracked by tools like Jira
arstechnica.com ↗
balloons 49 percent on average after AI agents are introduced
arstechnica.com ↗
a 14 percent increase in the share of workers performing code reviews
arstechnica.com ↗
absorbed by downstream constraints in the production process
arstechnica.com ↗
significant updates and upgrades to their output even since this study
Open this check in the full collection →
The idea, illustrated01

GITHUB: One timed task, not shipped software

  1. 01Claim: Copilot users finished a task 55% faster
  2. 02Record: that was one HTTP server task in JavaScript
  3. 03Field: 718 firms, code up 30%, finished work no significant change
Conceptual illustration · not a data chart
Next: Rebuilt Office, about half done

A solo developer rebuilt Word, Excel and PowerPoint with Claude, the post says. The WordCraft README says it is about 60% of the way to replacing Word for real work, and the spreadsheet app says 50%.

A shiny new office building facade propped up by wooden beams, with an empty lot visible behind it.
AI illustration

A solo developer rebuilt Word, Excel and PowerPoint as free open-source apps using Claude.

The reality check

The apps exist on GitHub, free, and DigitalToday reports all three were built with Claude. But the READMEs estimate WordCraft at about 60% of the way to replacing Word for real work, GridCraft about 50% ready, DeckCraft about 55%. Nothing in our record shows an earnings figure or user count.

Why care? The apps are real and free. By their own READMEs they are alpha software, about half to three fifths done.

Take this with youThe free, Claude-built Office lookalikes are real. Their own READMEs put them about 60, 50 and 55 percent of the way to replacing Word, Excel and PowerPoint.

Open the evidence5 source pages

The claim we checked

A solo developer rebuilt Word, Excel and PowerPoint as free open-source apps using Claude.

These are quoted receipts, not a count of independent investigations. Several reports may rely on the same original source.

github.com ↗
an open-source, clean-room reimplementation of Microsoft Word, rebuilt in pure Rust
digitaltoday.co.kr ↗
All three apps were built with Anthropic's Claude.
digitaltoday.co.kr ↗
Thomas posted the apps on the ArtCraft GitHub so anyone can download them for free.
github.com ↗
we estimate it is about 60% of the way to replacing all of Word for real work
github.com ↗
Beta needs testing against real-world .docx files
github.com ↗
our AI image and video studio
github.com ↗
the core workflow works end to end, but depth, fidelity and file compatibility are still rough
github.com ↗
we estimate it is about 50% ready for real work
github.com ↗
is about 55% of the way to replacing PowerPoint for real work
thurrott.com ↗
ArtCraft claims that the current version of this app is 87 percent complete for ribbon-based commands and about 62 percent overall
digitaltoday.co.kr ↗
criticism followed that it was vibe-coding software and AI low-quality content, or AI slop
digitaltoday.co.kr ↗
most of the apps still fall far short of the level of the products they aim to replace
Open this check in the full collection →
The idea, illustrated02

WORDCRAFT: Real apps, by their own count unfinished

  1. 01Claim: a solo developer rebuilt Word, Excel and PowerPoint
  2. 02Record: the READMEs say about 60%, 50% and 55% of the way
  3. 03Missing: no earnings figure or user count in our record
Conceptual illustration · not a data chart
Next: Skip button, not grit

Ten minutes of AI erodes your ability to persist, Berkeley's headline says. The study measured skipped problems on a paid online task, three test problems each, and its largest trial found the skip gap was not significant.

A small kitchen timer sits beside a tiny stack of three worksheets under a giant magnifying glass.
AI illustration

Berkeley News headlined that using AI for just 10 minutes erodes your ability to persist at hard things.

Free with your account

Sign in for this free check.

This edition’s selected free story opens after sign-in.

Open the evidence4 source pages

The claim we checked

Using AI for just 10 minutes erodes your ability to persist at hard things

These are quoted receipts, not a count of independent investigations. Several reports may rely on the same original source.

news.berkeley.edu ↗
Using AI for just 10 minutes erodes your ability to persist at hard things
news.berkeley.edu ↗
Whereas the AI users got answers wrong or gave up entirely when the AI assistance was withdrawn, the group without AI stuck with the task
news.berkeley.edu ↗
designed a series of randomized controlled trials and recruited 1,222 participants online
news.berkeley.edu ↗
You almost couldn’t ask for a clearer story
arxiv.org ↗
we find that although AI assistance improves performance in the short-term, people perform significantly worse without AI and are more likely to give up
arxiv.org ↗
Notably, these effects emerge after only brief interactions with AI (approximately 10 minutes).
arxiv.org ↗
participants were asked to solve 3 additional fraction problems
arxiv.org ↗
We recruited 667 US-based participants from the online research platform Prolific and paid them $3.40 for participation
arxiv.org ↗
but the result was not significant
arxiv.org ↗
Persistence costs are concentrated among those who obtain direct solutions
arxiv.org ↗
their payment didn’t depend on how many questions they solve correctly
arxiv.org ↗
our study took approximately 13 minutes to complete
psychologytoday.com ↗
Ten minutes of AI use erodes the persistence that 10,000 hours demands.
psychologytoday.com ↗
Not after months of dependency. After a single brief interaction.
Open this check in the full collection →
The idea, illustrated03

Go inside the check.

    The full explanation appears when your reading access is confirmed.
    The finish line

    Edition complete

    You’re up to speed.

    That’s the 13 Oct 2026 briefing. Keep the useful bits. Leave the noise.

    Reading estimate: 541 words at 200 words per minute. Source quotes and the optional sections below add reading time.

    Have another 3 minutes? · Learn one thing

    Tokens: the pieces AI reads

    Two words can be two tokens. One word can be six. See what changes. A beginner lesson with a visual you can play.

    Try the free lesson →

    Keep exploring

    All research

    Browse every checked claim by topic.

    A curated directory. Check each entry’s date and sources.

    Make a little room for clarity.

    Get the next checked edition in your inbox.

    Free email updates. Unsubscribe any time.