The $320 Billion Reality Check: What This Week's Earnings Actually Reveal
While everyone's debating Chinese AI models and efficiency breakthroughs, the real story is hiding in plain sight in recent earnings calls: Big Tech is doubling down on AI spending at unprecedented levels, but the revenue justification is getting harder to find.
The Numbers That Tell the Real Story
Here's what the latest earnings reports actually show:
Combined 2025 AI Capex Commitments:
Meta: $64-72 billion (raised from $60-65 billion)
Microsoft: $80 billion (fiscal 2025)
Google/Alphabet: $75 billion
Amazon: $100+ billion
Total: $320+ billion in AI infrastructure spending
But here's what's actually generating revenue:
Microsoft's AI revenue run rate: $13 billion quarterly
Meta AI: 700 million monthly active users (revenue TBD)
Google: AI metrics bundled with traditional ad/cloud revenue
Amazon: AWS AI revenue bundled with cloud services
The math is brutal: $320B in planned spending vs. Microsoft's $13B confirmed AI revenue run rate (the only company providing specific AI revenue figures).
What This Week's Earnings Actually Revealed
The Pattern Across All Major Players:
Microsoft (Reported Jan 29, 2025):
AI revenue hit $13B annual run rate, up 175% YoY, beating CEO's $10B October forecast
Capex was $22.6B in Q2 (record high), on track for $80B+ fiscal 2025
Translation: $13B AI annual revenue vs. $90B+ annual capex spending
Meta (Reported Jan 29, 2025):
Meta AI reached 700M monthly users (Q4), approaching 1B users (Q1 2025)
Raised 2025 capex to $64-72B (from $60-65B) due to AI data center investments
Translation: Massive user growth, but CEO said monetization focus is "at least the next year" away
Google/Alphabet (Reported April 24):
Total revenue $90.23B, ad revenue $66.89B
Capex $17.20B in Q1 (43% increase YoY)
Translation: Traditional revenue sources funding AI infrastructure buildup
Amazon (Recent):
Plans $100+ billion capex in 2025, "vast majority" for AI
AWS competing with companies like CoreWeave (420% revenue growth)
Translation: Massive AI infrastructure investment, revenue attribution unclear
The Industry Reality Check
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