The $320 Billion Reality Check: What This Week's Earnings Actually Reveal

While everyone's debating Chinese AI models and efficiency breakthroughs, the real story is hiding in plain sight in recent earnings calls: Big Tech is doubling down on AI spending at unprecedented levels, but the revenue justification is getting harder to find.

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The Numbers That Tell the Real Story

Here's what the latest earnings reports actually show:

Combined 2025 AI Capex Commitments:

• Meta: $64-72 billion (raised from $60-65 billion)

• Microsoft: $80 billion (fiscal 2025)

• Google/Alphabet: $75 billion

• Amazon: $100+ billion

Total: $320+ billion in AI infrastructure spending

But here's what's actually generating revenue:

• Microsoft's AI revenue run rate: $13 billion quarterly

• Meta AI: 700 million monthly active users (revenue TBD)

• Google: AI metrics bundled with traditional ad/cloud revenue

• Amazon: AWS AI revenue bundled with cloud services

The math is brutal: $320B in planned spending vs. Microsoft's $13B confirmed AI revenue run rate (the only company providing specific AI revenue figures).

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What This Week's Earnings Actually Revealed

The Pattern Across All Major Players:

Microsoft (Reported Jan 29, 2025):

• AI revenue hit $13B annual run rate, up 175% YoY, beating CEO's $10B October forecast

• Capex was $22.6B in Q2 (record high), on track for $80B+ fiscal 2025

• Translation: $13B AI annual revenue vs. $90B+ annual capex spending

Meta (Reported Jan 29, 2025):

• Meta AI reached 700M monthly users (Q4), approaching 1B users (Q1 2025)

• Raised 2025 capex to $64-72B (from $60-65B) due to AI data center investments

• Translation: Massive user growth, but CEO said monetization focus is "at least the next year" away

Google/Alphabet (Reported April 24):

• Total revenue $90.23B, ad revenue $66.89B

• Capex $17.20B in Q1 (43% increase YoY)

• Translation: Traditional revenue sources funding AI infrastructure buildup

Amazon (Recent):

• Plans $100+ billion capex in 2025, "vast majority" for AI

• AWS competing with companies like CoreWeave (420% revenue growth)

• Translation: Massive AI infrastructure investment, revenue attribution unclear

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The Industry Reality Check