93 percent of developers now use AI coding tools. Six independent studies converge on the same measured productivity gain: about 10 percent. In a randomized trial, experienced developers using frontier AI tools took 19 percent longer than those working without them. They thought they were 20 percent faster.
AI tool vendors and companies citing AI productivity to justify spend. Recorded 18 August 2026. Our ruling means: credible experts genuinely disagree.
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“Using AI for just 10 minutes erodes your ability to persist at hard things”
TRUE, BUTBerkeley News (UC Berkeley), headline on a 9 Oct 2026 story about an arXiv preprint; reached the Hacker News front page
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