Outliers: The Story of Success · chapter 1 · id outliers-c1-03-the-matthew-effect-accumulated
“The Matthew Effect (accumulated advantage) means that small initial advantages compound over time, making birth month a significant predictor of professional hockey success.”
TRUE, BUTconfidence: medium⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Merton (1968), Science 159(3810) -- original 'Matthew Effect' paperDOI registry: valid
The Matthew effect describes how eminent scientists get disproportionate credit compared to lesser-known researchers for comparable contributions, creating a self-reinforcing advantage cycle.
Gibbs, Jarvis & Dufur (2012), International Review for the Sociology of SportFLAGGED: DOI not in registry
The relative age effect is strongest at youth selection levels and diminishes or reverses at the highest professional level, suggesting accumulated advantage is not the whole story.
This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us. Corrections are loud here.