Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger · chapter 1 · id poor-charlies-almanack-c1-03-mungers-reward-superresponse-t
“Munger's 'Reward Superresponse Tendency' (incentive-caused bias) is the most powerful of all cognitive biases.”
TRUE, BUTconfidence: medium✓ ZHP-verified + red-teamed
Receipts
Gneezy, Meier & Rey-Biel, 'When and Why Incentives (Don't) Work,' Journal of Economic Perspectives (2011)DOI registry: valid
Incentives can powerfully shape behavior but also backfire -- monetary rewards can crowd out intrinsic motivation and social norms.
Gneezy & Rustichini, 'A Fine Is a Price,' Journal of Legal Studies (2000)DOI registry: valid
When a daycare introduced fines for late pickup, lateness increased -- the fine removed the social stigma and replaced it with a simple price.
Mellers et al., 'Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament,' Psychological Science (2014)DOI registry: valid
Superforecasters found multiple biases contributed to poor judgment; no single bias was identified as universally most powerful.
This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us. Corrections are loud here.