Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger · chapter 1 · id poor-charlies-almanack-c1-04-mungers-bias-list-is-missing-s
“Munger's bias list is missing several of the most robustly replicated biases in psychology: confirmation bias, hindsight bias, base rate neglect, conjunction fallacy, and framing effects.”
VERIFIEDconfidence: high✓ ZHP-verified + red-teamed
Receipts
Fischhoff, 'Hindsight Is Not Equal to Foresight,' Journal of Experimental Psychology (1975)DOI registry: valid
People consistently overestimate what they would have predicted in foresight after learning an outcome. This hindsight bias is among the most replicated findings in judgment research.
Tversky & Kahneman, 'Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency,' Cognitive Psychology (1973)DOI registry: valid
Systematic experimental demonstration of availability heuristic. Munger's list includes this one but omits the conjunction fallacy and base rate neglect from the same research program.
This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us. Corrections are loud here.