Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies · chapter 1 · id superintelligence-c1-01-expert-surveys-suggest-a-50-pr
“Expert surveys suggest a 50% probability of human-level machine intelligence by 2040-2050, based on the Mueller-Bostrom 2014 survey of AI researchers.”
TRUE, BUTconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Mueller & Bostrom 2014, Future Progress in AI: A Survey of Expert Opinionpaywalled · manual check queued
The median estimate of respondents was for a one in two chance that high-level machine intelligence will be developed around 2040-2050, rising to a nine in ten chance by 2075.
Grace et al. 2024, Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AIsource alive
If science continues undisrupted, the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047.
Metaculus AGI forecast (2025-2026 snapshot)paywalled · manual check queued
Metaculus forecasters predict the first general AI system median date around 2028-2033, with 25% probability by 2029.
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