Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies · chapter 8 · id superintelligence-c8-04-without-solving-the-alignment-
“Without solving the alignment problem, the default outcome of creating superintelligent AI is human extinction or permanent disempowerment.”
CONTESTEDconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Grace et al. 2024, Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AIsource alive
Median AI researcher estimate: ~5% probability that advanced AI leads to human extinction or similarly bad outcome. Between 38-51% of respondents gave at least 10% chance to outcomes as bad as extinction.
CNBC: OpenAI Dissolves Superalignment Team (May 2024)source alive
Jan Leike wrote that OpenAI's 'safety culture and processes have taken a backseat to shiny products.' Multiple safety researchers departed in May 2024.
80,000 Hours: Shrinking AGI Timelines (2025)source alive
AGI timeline estimates have compressed significantly. Multiple prominent researchers (Hinton ~10-50%, Christiano ~10-20%) assign non-trivial probability to catastrophic outcomes.
This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us. Corrections are loud here.