Microsoft

The six questions

1. MixedLaunch claims vs independent tests

   When they say a model is better, faster or cheaper, do independent evaluations agree?

   Microsoft said its MAI-DxO system correctly diagnosed 85.5% of 304 complex cases versus a 20% success rate for a panel of 21 physicians, but Microsoft itself admitted the doctors were not allowed reference tools they would normally use and the test focused on rare cases, not everyday medicine.

   2 receipts

   • Tested against 304 real-world patient cases published by the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), the AI system successfully diagnosed up to 85.5% of the cases. By contrast, a group of 21 physicians from the US and UK... achieved a 20% success rate. Business Today, 25 July 2025 ↗
   • the doctors were not allowed to use any support tools like books or the internet during the test, unlike in real-world situations where such resources are often used. Mint, 30 June 2025 ↗

2. MixedMoney claims vs the filing

   Do their valuation, revenue and user numbers survive contact with primary disclosures?

   Microsoft's capital spending hit $37.5 billion in one quarter, up nearly 66% year on year, then $41 billion the next, up about 70%, as Azure grew. Roughly 45% of its cloud backlog is driven by OpenAI alone, a company Microsoft holds a stake in and has committed to sell $250 billion of Azure services to.

   4 receipts

   • Microsoft's capital spending totaled $37.5 billion, a jump of nearly 66% from last year and with about two-thirds of the spending going toward computing chips. ETCIO, 28 Jan 2026 ↗
   • roughly 45% of Microsoft's remaining performance obligation was driven by OpenAI alone, underscoring its reliance on the startup, which has pledged around $1.4 trillion in overall AI expenditure ETCIO, 28 Jan 2026 ↗
   • Microsoft spent $41 billion on capital expenditures during the quarter, including building AI data centers and buying computing equipment. This was about a 70% increase from the same period last year. Hindustan Times, 30 July 2026 ↗
   • the overhaul included a commitment from OpenAI to buy $250 billion of Azure services, it also freed the ChatGPT creator to pursue cloud deals with other companies ETCIO, 28 Jan 2026 ↗

3. WeakPromises kept

   Did the things they announced with a date actually ship, on time, as described?

   Microsoft promised its Recall feature broadly for Copilot+ PCs by June 18, 2024. It delayed the launch to a smaller preview citing security concerns, then delayed it again, and by November had only reached Windows Insiders after security researchers forced a redesign.

   3 receipts

   • The feature was supposed to be in testing for Microsoft Insiders last month but has been delayed again as Microsoft has said it likely won't be ready until the next couple of months. The Hindu, 1 Nov 2024 ↗
   • Recall uses AI to enhance productivity and memory recall, though its launch has been delayed multiple times due to security concerns. Business Today, 22 Nov 2024 ↗
   • Recall feature will now be available only for a preview on its Windows Insider Program (WIP) in the coming weeks instead of being broadly available for Copilot+ PC users on June 18, Microsoft said in a blog post. India TV, 16 June 2024 ↗

4. WeakSafety and incidents

   When something went wrong, did they disclose it quickly and honestly?

   Security researcher Kevin Beaumont found Recall took a screenshot every few seconds and stored an OCR'd, plain-text record of everything on screen in a local database, and warned the feature would set cybersecurity back and make data theft easier for low-level criminals.

   2 receipts

   • Every few seconds, screenshots are taken. These are automatically OCR'd by Azure AI, running on your device, and written into an SQLite database in the user's folder. Digit, 4 June 2024 ↗
   • Microsoft will “deliberately set cybersecurity back a decade & endanger customers by empowering low level criminals.” The Times of India, 3 June 2024 ↗

5. WeakTransparency

   Do they publish what an outsider needs to check them?

   Microsoft only began disclosing Azure's actual dollar revenue in September 2026, having previously given just a year-over-year growth rate; before that, Azure sat inside a broader 'Intelligent Cloud' segment that let the company avoid showing the margins and capital intensity of its AI buildout.

   2 receipts

   • Microsoft, by contrast, has only been providing the year-over-year growth rate for Azure, and started offering actual sales on an annual basis dating back to last year. CNBC, 2 Sept 2026 ↗
   • By burying Azure inside the broader Intelligent Cloud segment, Microsoft effectively conceals the true margins, costs and capital intensity behind its AI expansion. The Times of India, 26 Aug 2026 ↗

6. MixedLegal and regulatory record

   What do courts and regulators say about them?

   The New York Times' copyright suit, filed in 2023, accuses OpenAI and its largest financial backer Microsoft of training on millions of newspaper articles without permission, including material acquired from behind paywalls; Microsoft argues the use is transformative fair use, and the case is still headed to trial.

   2 receipts

   • neither Microsoft nor OpenAI employed “fair use” of their reporting at any stage of the A.I. pipeline, including when acquiring articles behind paywalls and training large language models The Mercury News, 4 Sept 2026 ↗
   • In late 2023, the New York Times sued ChatGPT-maker OpenAI and Microsoft, its main investor, alleging that the companies' powerful artificial intelligence models used millions of articles for training without permission. The New Indian Express, 3 Sept 2026 ↗

Their models: what they said vs what others found