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AI, made clearer.

A flat average, a cheaper-model story and a promised download.

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What the pen marks mean
  • rememberThe takeaway: what to remember
  • figureThe number that matters
  • evidenceThe evidence line
  • rulingThe ruling
  • claimThe claim that fails

Each mark is drawn once, as you reach it. Numbers are only circled when they come from the story’s own figures.

Apollo's chief economist says AI has delivered zero payoff outside tech. His charts show flat averages for 493 companies. Flat on average is not zero for everyone.

A passer-by peers under an economist's flat ribbon and sees some shops doing a little better and some worse.
AI illustration

Revenue per worker and margins are flat for the S&P 493, and productivity growth is near nil. That supports 'no visible payoff yet'. It does not measure AI, and an Atlanta Fed survey finds small positive gains that lag in the revenue numbers.

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Inferno Tech Pty Ltd t/a BS Killer, ABN 27 647 413 474

Open the evidence3 source pages

The claim we checked

Despite massive investment, AI has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech.

These are quoted receipts, not a count of independent investigations. Several reports may rely on the same original source.

apollo.com ↗
the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech.
apollo.com ↗
Revenue per worker is rising for the Mag 7 but is flat for the S&P 493, see the first chart below.
accountsrecovery.net ↗
utilization-adjusted total factor productivity grew just 0.07% over the four quarters ending in the first quarter of 2026.
atlantafed.org ↗
more than 80 percent of firms reporting no impact on either employment or productivity.
Open this check in the full collection →
The idea, illustrated01

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    The full explanation appears when your reading access is confirmed.
    Next: Cheaper, mostly closed

    IBM's CEO says open weights are 90% as good for 10% of the cost. In Ramp's spending data, only 6.4% of AI-spending businesses pay for open-source models.

    A server salesman pitches cheap machines while most shoppers carry small boxes from the stall next door.
    AI illustration

    The cost pressure is real. But spending data says most of the shift goes to cheaper closed models, the 90% has no named benchmark, and IBM sells the racks.

    Members · 30 days free

    See what the evidence actually shows.

    Members read the full check on every story: what the evidence shows, why it matters to you and the one line to take with you. Every past edition, re-verified, and the Receipts Pack come with it. A$89 a year, about A$0.24 a day.

    1. At sign-up: 30 days free. Payment card required. One introductory trial per customer.
    2. Your trial ends 30 days after you start. Unless you cancel before then in Account → Manage subscription, we charge A$89 for the first year. It renews automatically at A$89/yr until cancelled.
    3. You can ask for a full refund within 14 days after any annual payment, renewals included, with no reason needed, by emailing [email protected]. This voluntary refund does not limit your rights under the Australian Consumer Law.

    By starting your trial, you agree to the Terms.

    Inferno Tech Pty Ltd t/a BS Killer, ABN 27 647 413 474

    Open the evidence6 source pages

    The claim we checked

    Businesses are choosing open-weight AI models over expensive frontier models, which are now 90% as good at 10% to 25% of the token cost.

    These are quoted receipts, not a count of independent investigations. Several reports may rely on the same original source.

    constellationr.com ↗
    open-weight models currently anywhere from 25% to 10% of the token cost of the frontier models
    constellationr.com ↗
    Would you like something that's 10% of the cost if it's 90% as good as the best?
    constellationr.com ↗
    you can get going with maybe 2 or 3 racks, which is not a huge amount of infrastructure
    finance.yahoo.com ↗
    Krishna noted that IBM's on-premises IT infrastructure is well-positioned for the shift
    newsroom.ibm.com ↗
    infrastructure revenue up 4 percent, up 5 percent at constant currency
    thenextweb.com ↗
    IBM has decided that the money in artificial intelligence is no longer only in building the cleverest model
    rits.shanghai.nyu.edu ↗
    found that open-weight models now handle 34% of enterprise AI token usage, up from 23% a year earlier.
    rits.shanghai.nyu.edu ↗
    Only 6.4% of AI-spending businesses in Ramp's data pay for open-source models.
    dev.to ↗
    the article names no benchmark behind the 70, 50 and 90 figures, so the quality half cannot be checked from the public record.
    Open this check in the full collection →
    The idea, illustrated02

    Go inside the check.

      The full explanation appears when your reading access is confirmed.
      Next: Open on a promise

      Open-source AI is a month behind the best, says the post going round. The model that closes the gap has no downloadable weights yet, and Artificial Analysis lists it as proprietary.

      A spectator finds the public gate padlocked with a sealed envelope hanging from it.
      AI illustration

      The 55 score is real and comes from Artificial Analysis. The 'month behind' is ModelCompare's own arithmetic, and it counts Kimi K3.1 Pro as open because Kimi promises weights by Nov 4.

      Members · 30 days free

      See what the evidence actually shows.

      Members read the full check on every story: what the evidence shows, why it matters to you and the one line to take with you. Every past edition, re-verified, and the Receipts Pack come with it. A$89 a year, about A$0.24 a day.

      1. At sign-up: 30 days free. Payment card required. One introductory trial per customer.
      2. Your trial ends 30 days after you start. Unless you cancel before then in Account → Manage subscription, we charge A$89 for the first year. It renews automatically at A$89/yr until cancelled.
      3. You can ask for a full refund within 14 days after any annual payment, renewals included, with no reason needed, by emailing [email protected]. This voluntary refund does not limit your rights under the Australian Consumer Law.

      By starting your trial, you agree to the Terms.

      Inferno Tech Pty Ltd t/a BS Killer, ABN 27 647 413 474

      Open the evidence3 source pages

      The claim we checked

      Kimi K3.1 Pro puts open-source AI a month behind the best, reaching fourth on the Artificial Analysis index, about 3 points behind Claude Opus 5.5.

      These are quoted receipts, not a count of independent investigations. Several reports may rely on the same original source.

      modelcompare.ai ↗
      In time, that puts open-source AI about a month behind: Claude Opus 5.5 first scored that high 31 days earlier.
      artificialanalysis.ai ↗
      Kimi • Proprietary model • Released October 2026
      artificialanalysis.ai ↗
      Kimi K3.1 Pro scores 55 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index
      kimi.com ↗
      our most capable 3T-class open-weight model to date
      kimi.com ↗
      The full model weights will be released by Nov 4.
      modelcompare.ai ↗
      That is 2.5 points short of Claude Opus 5.5
      Open this check in the full collection →
      The idea, illustrated03

      Go inside the check.

        The full explanation appears when your reading access is confirmed.
        The finish line

        Edition complete

        You’re up to speed.

        That’s the 25 Oct 2026 briefing. Keep the useful bits. Leave the noise.

        Reading estimate: 651 words at 200 words per minute. Source quotes and the optional sections below add reading time.

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